The NBA Clarity Index

Getty Images/Ringer illustration Some teams are entering the 2024-25 NBA season with an unmistakable direction. Others … not so much. We sorted every franchise into tiers based on a simple question: How clear is its plan? One of the savviest moves of the 2024 NBA offseason involved a team trading its best player and receiving absolutely nothing that will help it win games in the immediate future. The deal was universally hailed. Or, to put it in standard transaction report card form: Out: best playerIn: no one of consequenceGrade: A+ Only in the NBA does this calculus compute. You probably didn't even flinch at the premise. Because the Brooklyn Nets' trade of Mikal Bridges—to the New York Knicks, for a massive package of draft picks and a few nominal players—was eminently logical and profoundly practical. A no-brainer. Necessary, even. The Nets were going nowhere. They needed a reset. They needed to replenish their draft capital. And, given the reputed strength of the 2025 draft class, it's a good time to be bad. But we're not here to high-five the Nets for tanking. We're here to praise their clarity of purpose—an often-elusive feature among NBA franchises. After meandering through a 32-50 campaign, Brooklyn now has a crystal-clear agenda: sacrifice the present, amass assets for the future. (And if the ping-pong balls send Cooper Flagg to Flatbush next June, all the better.) There's no ambiguity about their direction. Nets fans might not be thrilled about yet another rebuild and the prospect of a 60-loss season. But they can take comfort in seeing a definable plan. That's not the case for at least a dozen franchises in any given year. The NBA's most precious commodity is, of course, talent—especially elite talent. But maybe the most important commodity is one entirely within a team's control: conviction. As one longtime team executive notes: "Too many people in this league are scared for their job and don't do what's right." Too many general managers, in other words, are more concerned with placating fans or the team owner (and/or avoiding criticism) than pursuing a consistent vision. Conviction matters. Clarity matters. This applies across the spectrum: There are lottery teams following sound blueprints and playoff teams with seemingly no blueprints at all. Some franchises are just perpetually confusing (or confused). It's not always about the front office. There are owners who refuse to pay the luxury tax (costing them talent and depth) or are irrationally attached to an overpaid or fading star (costing them flexibility). In our list-obsessed world, we've ranked teams based on current talent and future potential, on franchise value and market size, and on every metric imaginable. Today, we attempt to rank them solely on sensibility: Does the franchise have a plan? Clear goals? A direction? And are the owner and front office firmly committed to it? This an observational and impressionistic exercise, based on what we can see, hear, and intuit about each franchise. It's a snapshot, heavily weighted toward this season and the immediate future. (And things can change quickly, with a sudden trade demand, a devastating injury, or a breakout season.) But there are no advanced metrics or fancy formulas at work here. (Your mileage may vary.) Herewith, the first-ever Clarity Index: The Ever-Clear Tier These teams know exactly what they're trying to do. And so do we. Brooklyn Nets Dallas Mavericks New York Knicks Oklahoma City Thunder Philadelphia 76ers Washington Wizards Only in the Clarity Index will you find the cheerfully tanking Nets in a class with the championship-chasing Sixers. Their goals are wildly divergent—but equally unambiguous. This tier includes teams at both extremes of the competitive spectrum. Start with the Sixers, who set out this summer to sign a third star and then got him, inking Paul George to a four-year, $212 million contract. Then they locked up Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey on new deals, ensuring their new Big Three will get every possible chance to win a title in the near future. The Knicks shipped a crate of draft picks (including five firsts) across the East River for Bridges to boost the Villanova vibes and maximize the magic of the Jalen Brunson era. The Thunder methodically stockpiled young talent, surged to a 57-win season, then snagged one of the league's best defenders (Alex Caruso) and the best free agent center (Isaiah Hartenstein) to capitalize on the moment. (And OKC still has that massive cache of draft picks to use in potential trades, giving the Thunder more optionality than any of the current contenders.) The Mavericks bet big on Kyrie Irving—at a moment when most teams wanted nothing to do with him—then rode the Irving–Luka Doncic pairing to a surprise Finals appearance. In February, they splurged to get P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford; in July, they splurged on Klay Thompson. Consider the Sixers, Knicks, Thunder, and Mavs as the Live for Today division of this tier. Which brings us to the Live for Tomorrow tankers. It takes conviction to go the teardown route. You're almost certain to lose revenue and attendance and respectability. You might lose some fans. There's no guarantee of landing a franchise savior in the draft, or in free agency. A short-term rebuild can easily become a half-decade disaster (hello, Detroit). Draft poorly, or make a bad free agent bet, and today's clarity could become tomorrow's curse. So credit to the Wizards and new (as of last year) basketball chief Michael Winger. They finally traded Bradley Beal and his suffocating contract a year ago and have continued offloading veterans in favor of youth and picks and flexibility. It was long overdue. The Nets get slightly less credit here. Their rebuild was forced on them by Kevin Durant's and Irving's twin trade requests in February 2023. And they arguably held on to Bridges (the main return in the Durant deal) and other vets longer than they should have. But they've finally landed in the right place. The Side-View Mirror Tier Objects (and obstacles) are closer than they appear. Boston Celtics Milwaukee Bucks Minnesota Timberwolves Phoenix Suns Here we find a quartet of indisputably all-in teams—the defending champions, followed by three plausible contenders, all anchored by superstars, all firmly committed (financially and otherwise) to chasing the 2025 title. But gaze a little longer, and the picture gets a bit messy. The Celtics did whatever it took to win a championship—then kept (and/or extended) every key player to give them a shot at another one. But luxury-tax issues and the penalties of the NBA's "second apron" might force Boston to shed talent as soon as next summer. The franchise is also up for sale, with no guarantee that a new owner will be as committed to winning as current owner Wyc Grousbeck is. The Suns and Timberwolves made massive, risk-laden, all-in bets—Phoenix on Durant and Beal, Minnesota on Rudy Gobert—sacrificing draft picks and salary cap flexibility for years to come. We can quibble with the wisdom of those moves but not the clarity of their intentions. Still, there are some caveats with both teams. New Suns owner Mat Ishbia went on a wild spending spree to microwave a contender, paying little mind to Durant's age (soon to be 36) and health, or Beal's contract and injury history, or how to fill in the rotation under the second apron. This feels less like a plan of conviction than one of impulse—and with an early expiration date. The Wolves had one meh season with Gobert, followed by one revelatory season. They're firmly in contention now but, like the Suns and Celtics, will soon have to make some difficult choices to avoid massive tax hits and other penalties. To put it another way: How long can they afford to keep Karl-Anthony Towns? The Bucks could be dinged for (occasional) payroll pinching, but their commitment to Giannis Antetokounmpo is unassailable. They got Damian Lillard. They made a dramatic coaching change, and, when that failed, they changed coaches again, never worrying about the cost. Still, the roster is looking awfully creaky, with three starters in their mid-30s (Lillard, Brook Lopez, and Khris Middleton), all with extensive injury histories. The Frosted Glass Tier There's a plan here, but it's hazy. Denver Nuggets Indiana Pacers Memphis Grizzlies Orlando Magic Sacramento Kings Let's start with the team that absolutely should not be here. The one that claimed a championship just 15 months ago. The one with the reigning MVP. The one that, for a moment, had the look of a budding dynasty. The Denver Nuggets should be all in, at all times, as long as Nikola Jokic is in his prime and dominating. And yet … The Nuggets let Kentavious Caldwell-Pope walk away rather than reward his contributions. A year earlier, they lost key reserves Bruce Brown and Jeff Green and didn't replace them. The front office believes its recent draft picks can fill the void; the head coach does not. Denver has been notoriously cheap for years, but now is not the time to play the small-market sympathy card. The Nuggets did give Jamal Murray a max extension (four years, $208 million), but that only makes the picture more confusing; if you're committing that much to your no. 2 star, you should be willing to spend what it takes to keep critical role players on a title team. The additions of Russell Westbrook and Dario Saric don't inspire much confidence. The Pacers and Magic are here almost out of necessity. They're both young and promising and just starting to blossom. Each has added a decorated vet (Pascal Siakam in Indiana, KCP in Orlando), but it's arguably too soon to swing for the fences. They're content for now to evolve organically and see where it leads. The Grizzlies and Kings had their big breakthroughs two seasons ago, finishing second and third, respectively, amid a down year in the West. But a sudden glut of good-to-great teams has muddled the picture—and the agendas of each front office. The Grizzlies are hoping their core of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. is as potent as it appeared before injuries (and, uh, other circumstances) derailed them. The Kings are banking on a leap to stardom from Keegan Murray and/or a boost from aging star DeMar DeRozan. The Kaleidoscope Tier Colorful and compelling but a bit unsettled. Cleveland Cavaliers Houston Rockets New Orleans Pelicans San Antonio Spurs All of these teams have talent and promise—along with a lot of nagging questions muddying their agendas. The Cavaliers land here because they are stubbornly sticking with a core four that's riddled with redundancies. Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland are both high-usage, ball-dominant small guards. Defensive-minded bigs Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen often look more effective alone than with each other. After two seasons of solid but unspectacular results, the Cavs were broadly expected to trade at least one of their four stars—a decision that still seems inevitable. But the only major change of the offseason was a swap in coaches (from J.B. Bickerstaff to Kenny Atkinson). We know the Pelicans are loaded with talent and youth, with a clear leading man (Zion Williamson) and a new lead guard (Dejounte Murray) to pull it all together. But they're at an awkward crossroads, having desperately tried (and so far failed) to trade Brandon Ingram—a high-priced, high-usage wing who no longer fits with this group. They also have a hole at center, after sending Jonas Valanciunas to Washington over the summer. The Spurs are here almost by default—blessed with the most promising and mesmerizing young star in the game (Victor Wembanyama) and moving methodically to find the right supporting cast. And then there are the Rockets, a team flush with intriguing young talent but no clear North Star. Who will ultimately lead this team? Jalen Green? Alperen Sengun? Jabari Smith Jr.? A player to be named? Until they know, it's hard to have a clear agenda—or to make a real run at a playoff berth. The Stained Glass Tier Attractive at a glance, headache-inducing if you stare too long. Golden State Warriors L.A. Clippers L.A. Lakers Miami Heat Here we find three recent Finals teams, including two recent champions, all clinging to warm memories while praying they can rekindle the magic. The Warriors lost a core piece of their dynasty (Klay Thompson) but gave Steph Curry another extension and a slate of new playmates (Kyle Anderson, Buddy Hield, De'Anthony Melton) in hopes of reviving their title chances after missing the playoffs entirely. The Heat balked at giving Jimmy Butler an extension, lost Caleb Martin, and added no one of note, apparently believing they can #HeatCulture their way back into contention (or, failing that, stall until they find a trade for Butler). And then there are the Lakers, oh the Lakers, forever believing in their own exceptionalism instead of confronting their frailties. The presence of LeBron James and Anthony Davis means they always have a theoretical chance—and should be making every effort to maximize their talents. Yet the Lakers—to the great bafflement of every sentient being on earth—did not make a single significant change to a roster that got smoked in the first round of the playoffs last spring. (They did fire Darvin Ham and replace him with a rookie head coach in JJ Redick.) L.A.'s other team is just as confounding, banking all of its hopes on the perpetually injured Kawhi Leonard and the aging James Harden while deciding to let George leave as a free agent. After a half decade as a plausible contender, the Clippers now seem content to just sell tickets at their glitzy, new arena. The Fun-House Mirror Tier Confusing, freaky, and occasionally entertaining. Atlanta Hawks Charlotte Hornets Chicago Bulls Detroit Pistons Portland Trail Blazers Toronto Raptors Utah Jazz At last, we come to the most befuddling tier of all—the teams that seem to have no idea whatsoever where they're headed. The Pistons, who haven't won a playoff series since before Obama's first term, just replaced their general manager and their head coach yet again and have yet to develop a franchise star, despite annual trips to the draft lottery. Their offseason moves—signing veteran Tobias Harris to a two-year, $52 million deal and swapping the young and affordable Quentin Grimes for the older and overpaid Tim Hardaway Jr.—just muddied the picture further. The Bulls have been mired in mediocrity ever since they banked everything on the high-priced/low-ceiling core of DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Vucevic. They've belatedly begun to tear it down but seem to be stuck with LaVine and his massive contract, and they still don't have a definable goal beyond chasing a play-in spot. The Hornets also have a new front office and head coach, and some interesting young talent, but are no closer to respectability. The Hawks had the clarity to finally end the failed Trae Young–Dejounte Murray experiment (sending Murray to New Orleans), but they still seem directionless. If anything, they're moving backward. The Trail Blazers are just a year removed from the franchise-shaking decision to trade Damian Lillard and perhaps deserve some grace. But this is a team that waited too long to break up the Lillard–CJ McCollum backcourt, arguably waited too long to trade Lillard, and squandered chances to flip lottery picks for veteran help when Lillard was still there. Signing Jerami Grant to a massive contract just before trading Lillard doesn't indicate a team with clear goals. Portland has collected some promising young talent—Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Anfernee Simons—but with a lot of overlapping skills and no obvious no. 1. The Raptors waited too long to shed their old core (Siakam, O.G. Anunoby, Fred VanVleet) and are still trying to construct a new one around Scottie Barnes. Is this the right group? Or will we see another two years of roster churn? And the Jazz? They might be the most confusing of all—a team that jettisoned its All-Stars two years ago, isn't good enough to make the playoffs, and isn't bad enough to nab a high draft pick. They could have dealt Lauri Markkanen a dozen times by now, but they instead gave him an extension that makes him trade ineligible until next summer. They're neither trying to win nor trying to lose—the epitome of a franchise with an identity crisis.

The NBA Clarity Index

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